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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Aug 12, 2026
Length 14 Pages
SKU # OFE21523638

Description

Key changes: We’ve lowered our forecast for US 2026 GDP by 0.1ppt to a 2.2% expansion, but still expect growth will pick up to 2.7% next year as the squeeze on households' real incomes fades and productivity growth accelerates. Higher energy prices mean we now expect headline inflation to fade more slowly, but we’ve revised down our forecasts for core inflation modestly.

Table of Contents

14 Pages
US: The economy is increasingly reliant on productivity gains
Baseline forecast
Recent developments
Short-term forecast
Policy assumptions
Key drivers of short-term forecast
What to watch out for
Long-term prospects
Scenarios
Alternative short-run scenarios
Alternative long-run scenarios
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation

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