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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - New Zealand

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Aug 05, 2026
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE21523629

Description

Key changes: The interim truce between the US and Iran has broken down and the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted again, keeping oil elevated, the relief we’d pencilled remains in doubt. the domestic economy started the year with more momentum than we’d previously assumed. We’ve therefore raised our 2026 GDP forecast to 2.4%, from 2.0% before the conflict, as a rebound in investment and exports is set to build on the strong start to the year. The unemployment rose to 5.6% in the June quarter, the highest rate in more than 10 years, highlighting more slack in the labour market than we had previously thought.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Nz: Rising inflation will keep RBNZ hiking
Baseline forecast
Recent developments
Short-term forecast
Policy assumptions
Key drivers of short-term forecast
What to watch out for
Alternative Scenarios
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation

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